Well, the Tonys are finally upon us (assuming that we can all figure out how to activate that free trial for Paramount+ to watch the actual awards part of the ceremony), which means that I’ve been spending my time scouring the internet for predictions while figuring out what I think will be most likely to win as well.

Since there’s a lot of close races here, I decided to give percentages for a rough likelihood of what I think is each show’s chance to win, though it should be noted that shows I have not seen are Tina: The Tina Turner Musical, A Soldier’s Play, Grand Horizons, and The Rose Tattoo, so my predictions might be a bit biased or uninformed with regards to those shows.

Best Orchestrations

• Katie Kresek, Charlie Rosen, Matt Stine, and Justin Levine (Moulin Rouge) – 80%
• Tom Kitt (Jagged Little Pill) – 12%
• Ethan Popp (Tina) – 8%

I think the orchestration category also encompasses general arrangements, and you don’t really have to look further than Moulin Rouge‘s song catalog to see that there’s a lot of serious arranging happening here. And the voters in this category would be those with experience in orchestrations, who I can only assume have mad respect for the sheer number of songs utilized in this show.

Best Sound Design of a Play

• Simon Baker (A Christmas Carol) – 45%
• Daniel Kluger (The Sound Inside) – 43%
• Lindsay Jones (Slave Play) – 7%
• Daniel Kluger (Sea Wall/A Life) – 3%
• Paul Arditti and Christopher Reid (The Inheritance) – 2%

This one is one where I’m kind of going out on a limb, because most of the predictions I’ve seen have The Sound Inside taking away the award because sound design is kind of an esoteric area (see Adam Feldman’s prediction), but if I’m not mistaken, only industry professionals in this field are the ones that vote for this award. A Christmas Carol balances more live music, singing, and sound originating from different areas of the theater, which is why I think it’ll probably win this one.

Best Sound Design of a Musical

• Peter Hylenski (Moulin Rouge) – 80%
• Jonathan Deans (Jagged Little Pill) – 10%
• Nevin Steinberg (Tina) – 10%

I figured Moulin Rouge will probably take this in the full design sweep they’re likely to do, and well, there’s just a lot of sound going on at any given moment (just listen to the opening number).

Best Lighting Design in a Play

• Heather Gilbert (The Sound Inside) – 30%
• Hugh Vanstone (A Christmas Carol) – 28%
• Jon Clark (The Inheritance) – 25%
• Jiyoun Chang (Slave Play) – 10%
• Allen Lee Hughes (A Soldier’s Play) – 7%

This is another category where I’m going with my own judgment (though shout out to OHenry Productions, who agreed with me), as I’ve seen a lot of people put The Inheritance or Slave Play (which could make sense if they expect one of those plays to just sweep, though between the two, I’d say The Inheritance had a bit more “noticeable” intricacies with how they used their lighting). But in The Sound Inside, the lighting formed a large part of the mood of the piece, as well as carved out spaces on stage that allowed the very minimal set to function; you could even say the lighting essentially was the set (to the point where they warned specifically that lights on phones turning on could ruin the experience). A Christmas Carol definitely had some of that “mood lighting” going on as well, along with a few cool effects in how they used physical lighting fixtures, so I wouldn’t rule it out here either. Though it should be noted that this category is voted on by all the Tony voters, so the likelihood of just voting along the lines of a major play is slightly higher than it is for sound design.

Best Lighting Design in a Musical

• Justin Townsend (Moulin Rouge) – 80%
• Justin Townsend (Jagged Little Pill) – 10%
• Bruno Poet (Tina) – 10%

I would say this is just continuing the Moulin Rouge design sweep, but I do think the lighting really helped contribute to the setting and staging of many of the numbers here. Jagged Little Pill had some cool concert light-style lighting (and I’m assuming Tina did too), but I doubt that would be enough to overcome the Moulin Rouge juggernaut.

Best Costume Design in a Play

• Dede Ayite (Slave Play) – 35%
• Rob Howell (A Christmas Carol) – 33%
• Bob Crowley (The Inheritance) – 20%
• Dede Ayite (A Soldier’s Play) – 6%
• Clint Ramos (The Rose Tattoo) – 6%

I think this one will be a close one between Slave Play and A Christmas Carol, with the latter having more “traditionally” beautiful costumes. But a lot of what makes Slave Play work is being able to convince the audience that there’s more going on than what they can see, and the costumes definitely play into that, with a wildly different set of costumes between the first and second thirds.

Best Costume Design in a Musical

• Catherine Zuber (Moulin Rouge) – 85%
• Mark Thompson (Tina) – 10%
• Emily Rebholz (Jagged Little Pill) – 5%

Of these three shows, Moulin Rouge has the most elaborate and extravagant costumes, and while I assume Tina copies some of the iconic Tina Turner looks, I’m pretty sure Moulin Rouge has it in the bag (despite Cindy’s outrage at the exclusion of Satine’s iconic red dress from the movie).

Best Scenic Design in a Play

• Rob Howell (A Christmas Carol) – 35%
• Clint Ramos (Slave Play) – 34%
• Bob Crowley (The Inheritance) – 25%
• Derek McLane (A Soldier’s Play) – 6%
• Soutra Gilmour (Betrayal) – 6%

As far as the two leads go, this category shapes up to be somewhat similar to the costume category; I thought A Christmas Carol’s set was gorgeous in a more classic way that just made it a visual treat to watch, but Slave Play’s set contains a whole separate level of commentary, as well as a few surprises hidden within that make it really interesting to see how it’s used in the context of the play. The Inheritance also had a set that was very functional to how the story was told (as well as a plethora of fun props), but I don’t think it had the wow-factor that A Christmas Carol or Slave Play did, as much as I enjoyed seeing the different ways they could use that set as well.

Best Scenic Design in a Musical

• Derek McLane (Moulin Rouge) – 98%
• Riccardo Hernández and Lucy MacKinnon (Jagged Little Pill) – 1%
• Mark Thompson and Jeff Sugg (Tina) – 1%

If there’s one thing that’s worth seeing Moulin Rouge for, it’s the set. Next question.

Best Original Score

• Christopher Nightingale (A Christmas Carol) – 40%
• Paul Englishby (The Inheritance) – 30%
• Fitz Patton and Jason Michael Webb (The Rose Tattoo) – 14%
• Lindsay Jones (Slave Play) – 14%
• Daniel Kluger (The Sound Inside) – 2%

An unprecedented year where only scores from plays were nominated, etc. etc., we’ve probably all heard a ton about just how unprecedented this entire round of Tonys is by now, though I’m going to take just a moment to mention The Lightning Thief whose score I did adore and was sadly not recognized. The probabilities I have listed in this category probably come the closest to random picks I have, though I do think A Christmas Carol will take it because it’s the main play where I can remember music being a significant part of it (though granted, most of the music is preexisting Christmas carols). Certainly The Inheritance and The Sound Inside have music for pivotal scenes, but the usage seemed few and far between. The Rose Tattoo is probably my biggest outlier here because it’s a complete blind spot for me, but I love how the music sounds from the selections I’ve heard (Playbill’s article was very helpful here).

Best Choreography

• Sonya Tayeh (Moulin Rouge) – 60%
• Sidi Larbi Cherkaoui (Jagged Little Pill) – 25%
• Anthony Van Laast (Tina) – 15%

I don’t think this is going to be a heavily contested category either, and the choreography of Moulin Rouge definitely delivers the kind of high energy dance style you’d expect from this kind of show (“Backstage Romance“, the act 2 opener, is still one of my favorite sequences). While I liked the storytelling of the choreography in Jagged Little Pill as well, I wonder how Anne Teresa De Keersmaeker’s new choreography in the 2019 revival of West Side Story would have fared, had it been eligible (as far as personal preference, I think it would’ve been my pick).

Best Direction of a Play

• Stephen Daldry (The Inheritance) – 35%
• Robert O’Hara (Slave Play) – 34%
• Jamie Lloyd (Betrayal) – 11%
• David Cromer (The Sound Inside) – 10%
• Kenny Leon (A Soldier’s Play) -10%

I think this will again be between The Inheritance and Slave Play, and my prediction is for The Inheritance because there’s a larger cast to manage, a longer run time (so long), actors playing multiple characters, and more of a sense of fluidity as characters go on and off. The performances in Slave Play are top notch though, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the voters go that way instead. The rest of this category was tough to judge as well, with Jamie Lloyd’s highly celebrated rendition of Betrayal (though I found it a bit of a bore, and it seems I’m not alone), The Sound Inside (which I thought was mostly style over substance, but there was quite a bit of style, directionally), and A Soldier’s Play (which received mostly good notices for Kenny Leon). But I think this might be the category that ends up rewarding whichever play does not end up winning Best Play between the “Big 2” this year.

Best Direction of a Musical

• Alex Timbers (Moulin Rouge) – 60%
• Diane Paulus (Jagged Little Pill) – 25%
• Phyllida Lloyd (Tina) – 15%

Much like the design sweep I anticipate happening for Moulin Rouge, I think Alex Timbers’s creative vision really forms the backbone of the show (despite what I thought was a weak book). My bias might be showing a bit here as I haven’t seen Tina, but I don’t recall seeing any particular raves about the direction either, and while others may disagree, I thought Jagged Little Pill did a fairly good job moving between different characters and scenes, and the staging for some of the songs was downright inspired. But Moulin Rouge is all about the style so it’ll probably be Alex Timbers taking home his first award.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play

• David Alan Grier (A Soldier’s Play, Sergeant Vernon C. Waters) – 35%
• Paul Hilton (The Inheritance, Morgan/Walter Poole) – 33%
• John Benjamin Hickey (The Inheritance, Henry Wilcox) – 25%
• Ato Blankson-Wood (Slave Play, Gary) – 10%
• James Cusati-Moyer (Slave Play, Dustin) – 7%

This one is also tough, and I feel uneasy about putting someone in a show I haven’t seen as my frontrunner, but it seems like David Alan Grier is well-liked in the industry and gave quite a good performance, so I think things might be edging his direction (though Paul Hilton beat him to the Drama Desk). Between the two roles in The Inheritance, I thought Paul Hilton’s characters were deeper and much more interesting than John Benjamin Hickey’s (though as a disclaimer, I didn’t see him in the role). And while both Slave Play actors were fantastic, they don’t seem to have garnered as much buzz as the other nominees in this category.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play

• Lois Smith (The Inheritance, Margaret) – 40%
• Jane Alexander (Grand Horizons, Nancy) – 35%
• Annie McNamara (Slave Play, Alana) – 10%
• Chalia La Tour (Slave Play, Teá) – 8%
• Cora Vander Broek (Linda Vista, Jules) – 7%

While most people seem to think that Lois Smith has this in the bag, there seems to be a potential upset in the form of Jane Alexander (in a role I also did not get a chance to see). The role of Margaret comes late in The Inheritance, but forms a pivotal moment in Part 2, and Lois Smith is another one of those actors who’s had a long and fruitful career without winning a Tony, so I do think she’ll end up winning this.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical

• Danny Burstein (Moulin Rouge, Harold Zidler) – 85%
• Daniel J. Watts (Tina, Ike Turner) – 14%
• Sahr Ngaujah (Moulin Rouge, Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec) – <1%
• Sean Allan Krill (Jagged Little Pill, Steve Healy) – <1%
• Derek Klena (Jagged Little Pill, Nick Healy) – <1%

Most of the acting categories in a musical are pretty wrapped up, and this is just the first one of them. Everyone seems to agree that while this isn’t necessarily the specific role Danny Burstein should’ve won a Tony for, he really should’ve won a Tony by now and this is a chance to award him one (especially in a year where many of the other nominees probably wouldn’t have been nominated if it had been a normal year, though I’ve heard Daniel J. Watts’s Ike Turner would have been award-worthy in any other year).

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical

• Lauren Patten (Jagged Little Pill, Jo Taylor) – 70%
• Kathryn Gallagher (Jagged Little Pill, Bella Fox) – 10%
• Celia Rose Gooding (Jagged Little Pill, Frankie Healy) – 9%
• Robyn Hurder (Moulin Rouge, Nini) – 7%
• Myra Lucretia Taylor (Tina, Gran Georgeanna) – 4%

Strangely enough, I’m less sure about Lauren Patten’s chances of winning this than I am about Danny Burstein in his category, but I also don’t know who the next runner up would be, so I’m not sure that there’s a strong chance Lauren Patten won’t take the award.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play

• Tom Hiddleston (Betrayal, Robert) – 25%
• Blair Underwood (A Soldier’s Play, Captain Richard Davenport) – 23%
• Jake Gyllenhaal (Sea Wall/A Life, Abe) – 22%
• Andrew Burnap (The Inheritance, Toby Darling) – 15%
• Tom Sturridge (Sea Wall/A Life, Alex) – 9%
• Ian Barford (Linda Vista, Wheeler) – 6%

I’ve mentioned earlier how I wasn’t much a fan of Betrayal, but Tom Hiddleston seems to be picking up momentum with other people predicting the Tonys, so I suppose we’ll see how much that translates over to the actual voters, though I’ve heard a good amount about Blair Underwood as well. Jake Gyllenhaal would be my personal pick for this (as well as a possible dark horse candidate), as I found his performance in A Life warm, charming, and poignant, and I think he has enough respect in the theater community to make me think he could maybe pull off a win here. And while I did enjoy Andrew Burnap’s performance, I would have expected Kyle Soller to receive a nomination for his role as Eric Glass instead.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play

• Joaquina Kalukango (Slave Play, Kaneisha) – 50%
• Mary-Louise Parker (The Sound Inside, Bella) – 47%
• Audra McDonald (Frankie and Johnny in the Clair de Lune, Frankie) – 2%
• Laura Linney (My Name is Lucy Barton, Lucy Barton) – 1%

A lot of people have been trending Mary-Louise Parker, but I thought Joaquina Kalukango’s performance was more dynamic and varied, demonstrating a lot more versatility while crafting a really interesting character to watch (then again, I didn’t find The Sound Inside very interesting overall). She’s up against some theater greats, but her performance was really one of the best parts of Slave Play. (As an aside, two of the character names in this category, Bella and Frankie, are also two of the character names in the featured actress in a musical category, so that’s some fun trivia.)

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical

• Aaron Tveit (Moulin Rouge, Christian) – 100%

Yes, there is a possibility that the voters will decide not to give the award, but come on, in this economy? A moment of silence to recognize the loss of what could’ve been Isaac Powell’s nomination in the first-ever Tony nomination for the role of Tony in West Side Story, though.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical

• Adrienne Warren (Tina, Tina Turner) – 80%
• Karen Olivo (Moulin Rouge, Satine) – 12%
• Elizabeth Stanley (Jagged Little Pill, MJ Healy) – 8%

Just about everything I’ve heard about Tina is that it’s really just a vehicle for Adrienne Warren to win a Tony. And while I really enjoyed both Karen Olivo and Elizabeth Stanley’s performances, I highly doubt they’ll be enough to overcome the sheer star power of Adrienne Warren as Tina Turner.

Best Revival of a Play

• A Soldier’s Play – 40%
• Betrayal – 38%
• Frankie and Johnny in the Clair de Lune – 22%

If there’s anything I’ve learned from researching Tony predictions, it’s that I really should’ve watched A Soldier’s Play. I really don’t have much to say here seeing as I didn’t particularly enjoy Betrayal or Frankie and Johnny, but I think Betrayal has stayed more in the forefront of people’s minds than Frankie and Johnny so it really depends on how much voters liked A Soldier’s Play.

Best Book of a Musical

• Diablo Cody (Jagged Little Pill) – 37%
• Katori Hall, Frank Ketelaar, Kees Prins (Tina) – 33%
• John Logan (Moulin Rouge) – 30%

I really waffled a lot on this, but eventually settled on Jagged Little Pill. If it were up to me, it would be my pick, as I thought it did a tremendous job balancing all the different storylines while creating really compelling characters, but the multiple storylines also seems to be its greatest downfall for a lot of the show’s critics, who’ve called it “overstuffed”. And while I’ve gotten the impression that Tina isn’t significantly better than other similar jukebox bio-musicals, Katori Hall is a well-respected playwright, and Moulin Rouge has its fans as well, so i think this race is still fairly open.

Best Play

• Slave Play – 48%
• The Inheritance – 47%
• The Sound Inside – 3%
• Sea Wall/A Life – 2%
• Grand Horizons – <1%

This one should also be close, with The Inheritance being more of an “expected” pick, as it’s been branded the successor to Angels in America and became a largely personal play to many people. But I think the “newness” of a play like Slave Play will win out here (and the recent resurgence of the Black Lives Matter movement may have helped as well, as jaded as that sounds). It drew largely mixed reviews during its run, but Jeremy O. Harris has been making a name for himself in other mediums, and I think there’s a larger sense of appreciation for what he’s been doing than there was when Slave Play was actually playing.

Best Musical

• Moulin Rouge! The Musical – 36%
• Jagged Little Pill – 35%
• Tina: The Tina Turner Musical – 29%

Presumably this will be the last award that happens after 4 hours of broadcast, and it’ll definitely be highly anticipated on my end. While my personal favorite is Jagged Little Pill, I think Moulin Rouge has enough goodwill towards its “it may not be great but it’s good at what it does” approach to entertainment theater (see Ben Brantley’s review for his effusive praise) and has a cast and creative team of longtime well-respected Broadway veterans. Jagged Little Pill pushes more boundaries for me, with an original story, its tackling of social issues, and songs that work almost seamlessly into the plot (we had a hard time trying to figure out which two songs were written exclusively for the show), but many found it overwrought, “over-woke”, and over the top in a bad way (the voting took place in March, so recent controversies won’t have an effect on this year’s awards).

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Anyways, that’s my attempt at trying to get inside the Tony voters’ heads. It should be noted that there will probably be fewer eligible voters this year due to some people not being able to see all the shows, so it’s really difficult to guess which way things will go. I’ve made several different rounds of predictions over the course of this past week and they’ve been different almost every time (even the draft I wrote up for this post I ended up changing somewhat significantly).

But if you want to hear about what our personal picks would be, you can check out our Phony Awards episode, where we discussed our favorite shows/performances from our entire 2019-2020 “season”, both on Broadway and off. You can also check out the article I did last year as a season preview, where I made some Tony predictions that definitely did not end up panning out.

Either way, I’m glad to see we get the full awards show televised (well, on streaming) as well as a 2 hour special for mostly just performances!

-Christine